Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads Paperback – November 30, 2021

Mr. Rundell's book is brief, to the point, packed with facts but eminently readable, and deeply informed by his many years as an American diplomat in Saudi Arabia. (Truth in packaging: I am also a retired US diplomat, but never served in the Middle East.) The book is excellent for non-specialists who want to look behind the veil (sorry for the pun) to know what makes (or has made) Saudi Arabia "tick", but also for experts because of Mr. Rundell's unparalleled access to key Saudi players who can better reveal what really happened in certain episodes.The book provides a brief overview of the formation and modern history of the Kingdom, then describes each of the power centers (interest groups) which the Saudi dynasty has skillfully balanced and used to sustain its position and stability, and finally describes the key challenges/tasks facing the kingdom ahead, and what we should look to as future indicators of whether King Salmon and his son the Crown Prince are succeeding.The underlying (and insightful) premise of the book is that Saudi Arabia faces acute demographic and economic challenges ahead and needs, if it is to remain stable, to diversify its economy away from oil, but can only produce the necessary skilled and motivated work force by reducing popular subsidies (financed by oil) and introducing more liberal cultural elements into society. The more rapid pace of reform needed has led the King/Crown Prince to abandon the old glacial process of reform based on consensus and log-rolling and instead to adopt a top-down centralized authoritarian scheme in order to force the pace of change. Doing so produces friction with the major interest groups and could itself threaten regime political stability. So the Saudi royal family now faces a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma, the outcome of which remains in doubt.So this is a most timely book providing an excellent primer by which to judge future events in a country which remains vital as the determinant of the world supply and price of oil...and as a key player in the evolution of Islamic doctrine towards either moderation or extremist terrorism.

I've learned an enormous amount about the history of Saudi Arabia from Vision or Mirage; I've underlined passages on every few pages. Rundell's obviously deep knowledge of Saudi Arabia is apparent throughout, but he writes with a light touch that makes it highly readable and frequently enlivens his prose with an interesting detail that might not be found in more academic histories of the country. He does a remarkable job of explaining the complexities of the 21st century kingdom through its fascinating and sometimes brutal past. For anyone trying to understand just how much Mohammed bin Salman and his father have upended the country -- and the whole region -- this is required reading.

First, the good: this was an extremely well-composed, organized and paced history of Saudi Arabia. I learned so much. I recommend it to all who want to gain a better understanding of this important land.Now the caution: this book is to some extent a Saudi mythology, either whitewashing, explaining away or ignoring facets of Saudi history and behavior in its region and towards the west. I don’t really care about the history of brutality towards its own in this mythology of the Saudi nation. But I scratch my head at the near absence of reference to the long-time Saudi influence campaign in the US. Before there was Qatar, lavishly funding universities, buying up lobbyists, politicians and journalists, there were the Saudis. The author might feel he covers his tracks here and there on this issue with a throwaway sentence, but he doesnt. Likewise regarding the issues with Qatar and the Yemeni civil war, the Israel issue over the years, etc. In a seminar before COVID regarding Saudi-Israeli prospective relations, I heard Henry Kissinger caution his mostly Israeli audience that there is no alliance with the Saudi Royal family that is more than tactical and temporary. I didn’t get a sense of where Kissinger was coming from in this book. The author’s treatment of King Salman and MBS are cautiously critical, which perhaps is fair and reflects views of the deep Saudi state and stakeholders with whom the author may be aligned. I don’t know, which is a reason for more reading on this subject.One merely must look to the identity of the author (and of most of those giving glowing reviews) to understand this treatment. Fifteen years a diplomat in Saudi Arabia, and a member of a consulting firm for western clients in the area, he has his position and relationships to protect. When a journalist writes from a democracy, he has much broader freedom to convey the unvarnished truth than when someone like the author writes from an authoritarian regime (I use the word “from” because even though he might live in the UAE and London, one would suppose his Saudi relationships are still very much part of his professional life, and being in an authoritarian regime, they are subject to pressures).So in summary, cautiously read this book. It is excellent in so many facets and provides a thesis of Saudi Arabia that any student of this country should obtain. However, also look for other sources that may provide “another point of view” so that you can develop your own synthesis of the reality of Saudi Arabia, past and present.