Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds Kindle Edition

As Plato proclaimed, the true measure of a man is what he does with power. Executives need to be deliberative as they wield the powers vested in them - inherited or acquired. This book presents a strategy narrative that’s easy to imbibe - with good excerpts from previous McKinsey publications and academia. The authors reframe SWOT as Endowments (size) and Trends (industry growth), and put forth 'odds of success' of Big Moves (e.g., M&A) – using a Power Curve.Every Hockey Stick of growth has a mirror image, and that’s what makes the Power Curve. Can odds be predicted based on a probability distribution built on aggregated corporate data? If the data is predominantly from Asia, how applicable is that in America? Does knowing the number for yesterday’s lottery winner help? As the authors warn, “the way to make a move on the Power Curve is a hockey stick. The challenge is telling a real one from a fake one.” The readers are left wondering about the odds of success of any chosen strategy in their unpredictable industry settings - more so because the book does not fully explain the methodology or report statistical significance on the findings.As proof (QED) of a company’s power to move to the top quintile of the power curve, the authors offer PCC, an aircraft component company. They assert that this medium-sized company had 76% probability of moving up the Power Curve. The company found itself in a high growth industry segment; acquired companies, reallocated resources, improved productivity and increased prices – resulting in a 27% CAGR in TRS relative to 7% for S&P (2005-2014).A contemporary counter example to PCC is AT&T, that too found itself propelled by a megatrend. During 2012-2021, the telecommunications giant made the four strategic moves recommended in the book. Even with the strong inheritance and high odds (74%) of staying at the top, the telco’s Big Moves resulted in an inverted hockey stick – with TRS far below S&P. AT&T’s underperformance runs against the logic of the Power Curve, undermining the explanatory power of the model. In fact, the Power Curve is just a clever transmutation of a Bell Curve (a symmetrical probability distribution created by eliminating outliers such as Apple) with even odds for each strategic move. As the authors acknowledge, “there is no predictive power in this analysis for PCC’s performance looking forward.”One conclusion from this empirical research seem to be that Trend matters - with industry explaining 40% to 60% of economic profits. However, that remains unproven as the units of analysis are global corporations operating across multiple industries. Then again, the formulation detracts from the well understood executive view of Strategies as the bridge between Organizational characteristics (SW) with the changing Environments (OT). The authors assumed away execution capabilities (strengths) and the direct impact of counter-moves by competitors (threats). As a famous scientist formulized in 1687 - for every move there is an equal and opposite move. How predictable are those moves in the dynamic world of business? So the prescriptions in this book are reasoned conjecture, not based on relevant empirical evidence or a holistic strategy model.In short, this book is not the ‘Principia Strategica’ that executives have been waiting for. Must read – if you enjoy a caricature on the state of strategy with hockey sticks in the background (illustrated with irreverent cartoons). Anyhow, envision where the puck will be as you swing the hockey sticks - power plays have long term consequences.

This is a good book for framing how to think about strategy differently in order to increase economic profit and economic value add. I wish the book described a bit more about total shareholder returns and capital allocation for the moves though. The research is so heavily dependent on industry that there should be alternatives listed to maximize total shareholder returns when companies are stuck in bad industries or don't have practical big moves to make.

I just finished reading the book and really enjoyed the read. It somehow confirms some of the basic ideas of strategy formulation and implementation, in terms of the need to have a coordinated efforts on multi fronts to have a successful strategy, but concentrated in 10 levers that the authors believe make the biggest impact.The authors concluded that companies that made it to the top of a Power Curve (a curve that ranks companies on their ability to create economic profits, with the ones on the top generating exponentially more economic profit than the 2300 or so companies in the sample) shared a similar characteristics in using 10 levers that contributed the most in the success of companies. If the statistical analysis of the presented results are correct (I assume they are, but have no mean to confirm or disagree), this view gives a good yard stick to compare companies from different industries and sizes on their ability to create value, and could be used as a guide post in strategy formulation to achieve better results. The authors referred to the social side of strategy (cognitive biases, status quo...etc) and their effect on strategy formulation and resources allocation, and contend that, used correctly, the Power Curve could be used to "de-bias" and have constructive discussions on strategy. The authors finally propose 8 shifts in the way strategy exercises are conducted, to improve the process and increase the chances of success.Overall very interesting read, and i think the recommendations are practical and implementable, and could be used in strategy discussions in all companies!

This is not an average strategy book that discusses competitive advantage and 5 forces analysis. It goes way deeper into the strategy process; and turning strategic decisions into reality

I liked the on time delivery within the window, and quality as per described, thank you

Great to see research on what drives strategic outcomes, with practical advice on driving to action. Left wanting more, McKinsey bat phone at the ready!

Interesting book with thoughts on challenging the strategy planning process with a practical approach, data and examples on how to look at performance improvements in organisations and creating long term value by moving them upwards on the power curve.

It’s not clear where this book is pitched. It feels a little too data heavy to be simply a self-help type book but at the same time there is not enough data in here to be fully useful as a piece of in-depth data analysis to support research.The pitch for this probably sounded really interesting, we need a book that is going to get people who don’t use big data that much to get engaged while at the same time not being too threatening by ensuring there is lots of accessible ideas in there from real organisations. Sounds great, but the execution is a little light on both. While I think there is some good stuff in here to supporting the linking of actions to data, I think I would have preferred something that was either a lot more interrogative of data to whet my appetite.If you are new to data analysis in a business context or just want your anecdotes to have some demonstrable data behind them, then this might be for you. If you are looking for anything deeper on either front, I would look somewhere else.