The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

Michael Lewis has written the most interesting book showing how individuals who wish to do a public good with no interest in either politics or profits can be destroyed by the immovable monolith called Government and the buck passing, back watching people who make it fail. Whilst the pandemic may not have been stoppable, had the interventions described by the pandemic plan been implemented not only in the USA but the World, the death rate and misery would have been seriously reduced, for this the CDC, WHO and not only the US Government but all World Governments who took their lead from the CDC and WHO should hang their heads in shame. It would be unfair to single out Trump, but as the “Leader” of the Free World, had he shown one iota of intelligence, knowing and having access to the reports, he should have reacted more aggressively to get on top of the pandemic, but like Boris Johnson in the U.K., he dithered, he stalled, he played down the pandemic as nothing more than influenza on steroids - the World can only surmise the source of the virus, it certainly looks to have been created via Gain of Function research, but what the World is certain of - the failure to plan and take action has led to a death toll that is still rising, and not only because of C-19 but because medical services treating existing or new medical conditions have been diverted to treat C-19 patients causing a treatment backlog. Thank you Michael Lewis and all the brilliant people mentioned who tried and continue to try to get the message across - this book has been a revelation.

Candidly, not one of Michael Lewis' best but that is a very high hurdle to cross. The thread is hard to follow at times, as are the politics. But it is still a very worthwhile, gripping and informative tale

The author takes complicated subjects and explains them in ways normal people can understand. In thus case he shows us how a group of people anticipated a major pandemic and planned for it. He also shows us why things didn't work out as planned. From venal politicians to a broken public health system to corporate desire for profit over service, we see why the pandemic took hold in, supposedly, the earliest most advanced country. Thus should be required reading for all. The lesson is that we need to prepare now for the next one. No one knows when it could happen but we know it will. We can't repeat the mistakes again.

I bought this book purely because Michael Lewis wrote it. Ill be honest that I was sceptical as to whether it would be 'my sort of thing' but I really enjoyed it. I'm from the UK and this is purely based on the response in the US so the things that happened are less familiar to me than they would be to someone in the US. I also still don't understand how the system works there but then it seems no one does and that's kind of the point! The book had be gripped and I finished it in a couple of days. Even though I wasn't expecting to, I really enjoyed the read. This reminds me why I read Michael Lewis books - he is so good at what he does!

the style is very much like his other books - which you would expect. Taking people views of themselves and putting it into print. Peoples views of themselves are interesting but not the full story of course. Good details and facts which are thought provoking and a bit scary - but if you speak to anyone in an organisation they usually think the big organisation they work for has got it all wrong and only they understand.

Interesting, thoughtful and well written.

The US once led from the front, taking special care to put its citizens first. The rest of the world transmits electricity into your home appliances at 220 Volts. The US suffers a tiny bit financially, but delivers it at 110 Volts, which saves lives. The rest of the world chlorinates water. The US does one better, it fluorinates. The rest of the world was happy to suffer lead in its gasoline (and lungs) well into the eighties. The US switched to unleaded as early as 1972. And toward the end of “The Premonition” you learn that as recently as 1976 the US embarked on a mass vaccination program to stop a potential repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. What you also learn from this book is that there’s nothing left of the lead the US once enjoyed or the ability of its government to improve people’s lives. This is the story of the team that, in response to an order from George W Bush, put together the nation’s plan to fight pandemics, only to see Bolton shut it down halfway through the Trump administration, just in time for the US to totally fumble the recent Coronavirus pandemic. In the way that only Michael Lewis can, you are introduced to Bob Glass, Charity Dean, Carter Melcher, Richard Hatchett and Joe DeRisi and follow them as they take it upon themselves to rescue America in this most recent challenge. If you read the papers, you know they failed. Here you get to see why: the institutions that would once have taken charge are shown to now be ossified facsimiles of their former selves, mainly focused on avoiding blame, preserving the status quo and suppressing the efforts of any potential usurper. Just as depressingly, from my angle, the only institutions that come out well from this are the ones funded privately by billionaires and millionaires. I finished this today, August 21st, with the recent Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in the news and I can’t say I’m surprised.

Although this a book about the Covid pandemic, it reads like a well-written novel. Definitely. Worth reading.Lots of insights, from medicine to computer science to politics.

I could not put it down. CDC comes across as quite useless in fact criminal. But the heroes the author brings forth are brilliant. The detail in this book are what makes it riveting. And the sheer incompetence of the American Health Services is underlined time and again. If someone is not making money, there’s no interest. Michael Lewis has written another brilliant book

Michael Lewis is always an enjoyable read. He does his research and he tells a good story. One of the best non-fiction writers around.

ソーシャルディスタンシングという言葉はコロナパンデミックと共に急に使われ始めた感があるが、この概念は2007年のブッシュ政権において作成されたガイドラインで強調されていた。（その内容は「「スイスチーズ方式」でCOVID-19封じ込めの第2のチャンス」でウェブ検索して表示される情報が分かりやすい）つまり、14年前には、パンデミック発生時の対策が決められていたのに、トランプ政権はそれをないがしろにしていたということ。 しかも、本書によると、ソーシャルディスタンシングの重要性に最初に気付いたのは、サイエンスフェアの課題でパンデミック対策を取り上げた子供。それが、人づてに伝わり、最終的にはガイドライン作成に携わったCarter Mecherらの目にとまり、それをベースに彼らはガイドラインを作成した。ちなみに当初はsocial distanceと言っていたようで、それがsocial distancingに変わったみたい？ トランプ政権の無能さやCDCの機能不全（なぜそうなったかの推論も挙げられている）についても、何度も触れられている。 本書の強さは、実在の人物、例えばCarter Mecher、Richard Hatchett、Rajeev Venkayya、Joe DeRisi、Charity Deanといった、コロナ対策の裏側で活躍した人たちに着目して、彼らがどう貢献したのか、どのような苦労をしたのかを分かりやすく説明しているところ。TVや新聞しか見ていないのであれば、決して分からない情報。 彼らと同じことが日本でできるかというと疑問。彼らはいずれも組織（官庁＆企業）の常識にとらわれず、時には上司に逆らい、自分が正しいと思ったことを突き通して、横のつながりを通して解決策を見つけていったのだけど、日本では行動に移す部分が難しいでしょうから。 もちろん、彼らも乗り越えられなかった、官の大きな壁はあり、それがどうなったのかについては分からないままとなっている。また、保守による、Covidが危険でないと見る人たちに関する対策については、まったく触れられていない。 ともかく、米国で実際に現場でどのような対策がなされたかを知りたいのであれば、必読だと思います。

In this compelling non-fiction account of the run up and beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Michael Lewis skillfully weaves a story without an ending ... yet. His writing is exquisite: fast paced, suspenseful, and pungent. It is the story of a band of medical, scientific, and public health patriots nicknamed “The Wolverines”, who tried to first stop the pandemic and then slow it when it could not be stopped. Reading it made me feel like I was in the movie, “Casablanca”, another powerful story with an unsure ending. Lewis draws rich profiles of these heroes as they struggle, fail, and often succeed against entrenched state and federal bureaucracies. He also explains the technical complexities of viruses and pandemic exponential growth clearly and with mind searing memorable analogies for the lay reader. Yet he also does what amounts to a forensic autopsy of the failure of governments to respond to a rapidly changing existential national and global threat. It is a bit like a half time analysis of a lethal football game. What will happen in the second half? This book gives hope of victory over the COVID-19 virus, but shows our vulnerability for future, possibly even more lethal pandemics. Those in Washington and State capitols who should read this book probably won’t, but for the rest of us in the front lines or just behind them, this book is must reading!